Preseason Football Predictions

Way back in time, during those crazy years in college in Southern Oregon, there was a time of year that many students longed for and got so excited about and made huge plans to celebrate the Memorial Day weekend. It's nearing us as I write, so it has brought to mind some of the mysteries and energy that the mere thought would bring to me long, long ago. Along the Interstate 5 (I-5), about 10 miles north of the California border lays a small college in Ashland, Oregon, named Southern Oregon University. In my days of attendance, it was Southern Oregon State College, known for the Shakespearean Festival, liberally-minded free spirits, the rugby club, criminal justice program, the Mt. Ashland ski swap, and many parties. For Memorial Day weekends, it was a time to go out in the nice weather and pack up for a road trip to Lake Shasta, California. For many, large groups got together and rented house boats for the weekend to float around the lake during the day and dock on the banks at night. For others, in smaller, more intimate groups, people would get a hotel or maybe use a tent and camp somewhere along the lake's shores. No matter how you stayed there, there would always be more skin and alcohol anyone would ever need to see in a whole lifetime. I recall getting so excited each year after that initial visit to Lake Shasta with most universities within 2-3 states away were represented. It was an opportunity to meet so many people from all over, and I do recommend carrying a small puppy, if you like girls stopping you to pet your dog - (borrow one if you have to).

One particular year, I was depressed thinking about how I wouldn't be able to make it to Shasta. However, a friend of mine from the rugby team, Kai, decided to just go and not really plan - and fly by the seat of our pants (shorts). So, we did. I got so excited to think about Lake Shasta and meeting new people and spending time with a good friend along the way. We didn't have a tent or arrangements for a house boat, so we decided to just sleep in the car the three nights. Great plan! (Just kidding.) To make a long story short, we happened upon other "car travelers" from our school that we knew and decided to try to find out together where all the house boats were going to dock for the night so we could hang out with tons of people and listen to the band that usually plays on top of one of the boats. Then we met up with "the car". It was a small car full of three California girls. Kai and I didn't get to talk to them initially, but the other guy from our school stopped them to convince them to look for boats with us. We couldn't find the boats, so we decided to take a break and cool off in the water a bit. I'm so glad we did because I was able to witness the most amazing sight of my life - to that point. One of those three girls was a blonde-haired, blue-eyed, indescribable thing that I couldn't even find in my dreams. Everything about her was perfect! I was never very outgoing or confident with the ladies, so this one was so intimidating that I couldn't look at her while she was appearing to look in my direction at all. I'm sure I seemed like a shy, bashful school boy surrounded by teasing girls. While I was out in the water and she was sunbathing on the sand, I could get a glimpse of her elegant form when she was talking with one of her friends (looking away, of course). Then, she noticed my badly burned back from the day before and kindly offered to put lotion on my skin. Oh my! She spoke to me! Sigh! And sigh again! What a sweet, sweet angel! Then I got even more nervous because all I could think about was whether or not the red skin would hide the zits on my back. I panicked! Would she talk to me again if she sees my zits? Will she stop rubbing the lotion? I can't bare the thought of the embarrassment! So, I clumsily declined the offer and almost immediately began kicking myself in the head and haven't stopped since for blatantly denying myself the simple pleasure of the most beautiful girl rubbing lotion on MY back. Later, when we were all parting and saying goodbye, I tried to muster up the courage to look at her and ask if I could call on her, even though we lived so far apart. I failed again. I watched that little car drive off as the most dejected, lonely person on earth. I was a loser! My excitement for Lake Shasta would never be the same. The kinks in my neck after sleeping across the front seats of Kai's car were that much worse than they would have been with a small bit of lotion absorbing into my back. The extremes of feelings about those few hours left such an impression that till this day, I am still affected by those emotions. I was too consumed with my vanity of a few zits rather than being confident and taking a chance of a really hot girl actually liking me. I'll never know because I didn't seize the opportunity. Ah, Memorial Day weekends!

So, my enthusiasm for Memorial Day is about the same these days as it was when I was a young buck. Being married and with small children doesn't get me excited about house boats and meeting interesting sorority girls; however, it is that time of year that allows college football sports writers ample time, after spring practices have wrapped up, to put down some predictions of the fall and the upcoming college football season and blessing us with those wonderful preseason annuals. I get so giddy and anxious! May seems to be the longest month of the whole year. Once the bowl games are finished in January, the next day is Cinco de Mayo and spring is blooming in the air, then the next day is... May 6th! Then the 7th! Then the 8th! Does it really have to go by so slowly? How can I buy a preseason college football annual if it is still May? C'mon!

The magazines are a bit expensive, but I feel I get my money's worth by how much I go through them before the first ball is kicked off in August. I've been buying the Athlon college football annual since 1997 and love it every year! It is usually the first one in the stores. Now days with the Internet, I get a little glimpse of what the annuals are going to talk about and what the top 25 looks like. It's like eating one Salt and Vinegar potato chip (my favorite) - that tangy vinegar hits the taste buds and it's all over trying to resist additional chips. That's where I find myself on the Athlon web site, waiting one day at a time to count down the top 25. I read the current day's team and need to read more. Today it is Oregon at #9. Well, who rounds off the rest of the top 10? Is Alabama going to be anything other than #1? How many Pac-10 teams will be in the top 10? I just gotta know! I get so excited wanting to know! But I have to wait until June. Sigh! And sigh again!

As of today, with 10 more days left in the month of May, I was able to scrounge up three websites that give me a little bit of information before I buy their annuals. I mentioned Athlon Sports with their daily countdown (not weekends) to the top 25, having 25 to 9 now. The Sporting News has their preseason annual on sale now with the many regional covers being offered online, with a small little part giving their top five. Phil Steele has a great website, but he likes his daily top 33 and has only the first four or so teams, so hasn't even touched the top 25 yet. Then there is Lindy's who just put out the entire list of their preseason top 25. I love it! Most of them will predict the top 5 teams or so nearly the same; for instance, Lindy's and Sporting News have Alabama at number one, then they each have Boise State and Ohio State at 2 and 3, 3 and 2, respectively. Then they each have Florida placed at #5, while #4 for each is completely different. Lindy's has Texas at #4 and Sporting News has Miami at the four position. Miami at number four seems pretty generous right now because Lindy's has that same team ranked at 20 and Athlon has the 'Canes at 14.

I can't stand the anticipation of having those magazines in my hands, and writing this piece on it makes it worse for me! I'm thrilled about the thought of placing each magazine in its own plastic cover, like the ones you see at a doctor's office. The protective cover makes them last so much longer because they would get pretty wrinkled up in my back pack, otherwise. I use the annuals to gather information and collect my own thoughts to derive my own top 25 theories for the season. Some magazines tend to put more emphasis on a particular conference or two and a lot less on the others, which is where some of the bias of strength of schedule begins to factor in the whole season. I'm looking at the Athlon preseason rankings, for instance. We don't know who they will put in from 1-8 yet, but they already have four teams from the Southeastern Conference (LSU (24), Auburn (22), Arkansas (17), and Georgia (15)). Nobody in their right mind and knows even a little bit of current college football will not have Florida and Alabama on their top 10 list, so that will make a whopping 6 teams from the SEC in a preseason ranking from Athlon. Half of the conference makes the list! Wow! That must mean that it is an excellent conference! (Sarcasm!) They haven't even played a game yet and the computers will look at those rankings and say that all the teams within that conference must all play really tough schedules because half of the conference is found within the top twenty-five. On the other hand, the computers will notice that the Pac-10 is not represented in the top 25 very well, unless USC and another school can sneak in the top eight teams together, and those computers will say that any team in the Pac-10 has a weak schedule due to this list of rankings.

What if I were one of those infamous writers and decided to put all the Big East teams at the top and nobody from the SEC in my top 25 teams? Then it would appear that if Pitt loses only one game during the season, they would be playing for the national title. I'm not saying that Pitt would be far off this year if they qualified to play for the title, but because their whole conference would be ranked boosting the strength of schedule. How would that role reversal affect the nation? A question from my thoughts: Do the writers rank so many SEC schools in the preseason purposely to boost the strength of schedule because they know that the non-conference strength of schedule for nearly all the teams in the SEC are ridiculously terrible? Yes, you have Florida vs. Florida State or Georgia vs. Georgia Tech or South Carolina vs. Clemson every year, but in the Pac-10 they would call that a conference game - every year.

Memorial Day is approaching - slowly - and my excitement can hardly be contained. I feel like I'm anticipating a Lake Shasta visit that can't get here fast enough. So, I leave with a bit of advice: 1) Formulate your own top 25 by combining all the information available from the preseason annuals that will come out soon, and 2) Be confident and don't lose out on your moments in life, but don't get carried away because either extreme will cause regrets.

Where's The Southern Love?

I have to admit, I'm a little shocked with the latest polls of week 4 of this 2009 college football season. There was a little bit of some shaking up in the top 10 from the week before, and I was expecting some teams to enter into the top 25 this week that never ended up happening. We had the #4 team in the nation, Ole Miss, losing to a 3-1 South Carolina, whose only loss was to Georgia. Now, Georgia, who has the same record as the Gamecocks, are ranked in the top 20 playing a difficult non-conference schedule (especially for an SEC team). They traveled to Oklahoma State and gave up their only loss, and they played a tight one at home against Arizona State; nevertheless, they still have Georgia Tech to play for a non-conference game. Similarly, South Carolina has chosen to play another BCS school besides their annual match-up against Clemson, by starting the season against North Carolina State. Of their four games, half of them were ranked. They lost to Georgia, but beat Mississippi. I figured, unless your record is below .500, you should be put in the top 25 after beating the #4 team in the nation. This brings up some questions about the voters. Did they realize that Ole Miss was extremely over-rated, or do they still really like Ole Miss that much better than South Carolina (even though the Rebels have played such a horrible schedule so far)? The Rebels are still ranked in the top 20, yet South Carolina is not yet ranked and not considered a better team than that one they just beat a week ago on a Thursday night with the same amount of losses. Am I the only person scracthing their head after these facts have pooled around for a while?

On another note, a 4-0 Auburn team isn't ranked either. What if Auburn goes 13-0 this season, along with Texas and a 12-0 Michigan team? Will Auburn re-live their last undefeated season and not get a chance to play in the national title game because they were so far back in the rankings that they couldn't catch up to the other undefeated teams? Of course, right now, it doesn't seem possible; however, it IS college football.

Another Southern team that isn't getting any love right now, who I feel deserves a little, is the South Florida Bulls. They came into Florida State after their huge win over then ranked #7 BYU, and stunned the Seminoles 17-7 without their starting quarterback who has been the starter for what seems like 6 years now. With Matt Grothe on the bench, the back-up, B.J. Daniels comes in and makes Bulls' fans forget about the injury to Grothe. That shows great depth and coaching! I don't know how voters can overlook that. I'm just blown away.

It seems that Oregon has gotten the better end of the deal than South Carolina. Two very similar situations with each having one loss to a ranked team coming into week 4 as an unranked team, then beating a top 10 team; however, that's where the similarities end. Oregon is now in the top 20 and the Gamecocks are not ranked at all. This just seems really backwards to me. I'm not sure if it's because Oregon beat the crap out of Cal and South Carolina squeaked one out or what, but it sure seems that by history's sake, the rankings of the two teams would have been flipped. Trust me, I love how it looks now, but I have my suspicions about the voters. Are they really paying attention to the whole nation? So, the love that I'm familiar with that hovers over the Southeastern part of the nation is eluded for a week and it has me freaking out a bit. How is the Pac-10 suppose to "earn" its way into the rankings if the South isn't getting that love? Well, I don't have to look far - I just think about a good friend's alma mater, UCLA, who is 3-0 and traveled a long ways to play an SEC team to beat them. They have yet to be ranked. Oh well, not all can be perfect in a week with West Coast love.